Optimism From Hillary and Darkness From Trump at Campaign’s End

Hillary and Trump hopscotched from Pennsylvania to North Carolina to Michigan on Monday in the final, frenzied hours of the presidential campaign, offering clashing closing arguments as the sprawling map of the United States was reduced to a string of must-win states.

Accompanied by rock stars, ex-presidents, old friends and their grown children, the Democratic and Republican nominees pleaded with voters to end a traumatic campaign with an emphatic endorsement of their visions for the country.

In philadelphia, mrs. Clinton drew the largest crowd of her 19-month campaign to the massive plaza in front of independence corridor, in which bruce springsteen, the balladeer of working-magnificence america, rhapsodized approximately her values and the candidate portrayed herself as a protector of freedom and equality.
Day after today we are facing the take a look at of our time. What’s going to we vote for — now not just against? Mrs. Clinton asked. each difficulty you care about is at stake.
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Presidential election 2016
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She concluded with an appeal to those who have waited a long time for a woman president.

Allow’s make history together, she said.

In manchester, n.H., mr. Trump took the degree together with his circle of relatives at southern new hampshire university area as “god bless the u.S.A.” blared, blue laser beams illuminated the darkish hall and a smoke gadget piped a haze over the crowd.

Mr. Trump requested a country polarized over his personality and methods to include his plan to thoroughly shake up washington.

i am asking for the votes of all people, democrats, republicans, independents,” mr. Trump stated, “who are so desperately in want of exchange.

The contrasts among the applicants and their messages had been on shiny display in the campaign’s ultimate complete day.

As she launched into a 4-kingdom excursion, mrs. Clinton gave a sunny and constructive summation of her candidacy for the white residence.

The following day, you could vote for a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted america, she advised a crowd in pittsburgh.

Mr. Trump, who campaigned in five states on monday, took a harsher method, assailing the “crooked media,” attacking a “corrupt washington establishment” and mocking mrs. Clinton over and over.

it’s a rigged, rigged gadget, he declared in raleigh, n.C. and now it’s up to the american people to deliver the justice that we deserve on the poll field the next day.

Because the marketing campaign wound down, each candidates dispensed with ritual. Mrs. Clinton, who relishes upbraiding her opponent, toned down her usual attack on mr. Trump’s behavior and temperament. And mr. Trump, who typically seeks to bring confidence always, sounded uncharacteristically inclined.

they say we’ll get a super quantity of credit score, win or lose, he stated at some point of a rally in sarasota, fla. “i said: ‘no, no, no, no. I don’t need any credit if we lose.’”

In spite of the ugliness of the marketing campaign, there had been signs that americans have been seizing the possibility to specific themselves at the ballot field in large numbers. Turnout in states that allow early voting changed into excessive, and in interviews, many voters stated they had been eager to carry an quit to this uncommon, arduous and nevertheless suspenseful election.

I’m completely prepared for this election to be over, stated mary hoch, fifty four, who attended mr. Trump’s rally in sarasota with a make the usa incredible once more hat on her head and a “deplorable lives matter” pin on her shirt.

“it’s splendid to see a finish line, isn’t it?” mr. Kaine stated at an out of doors rally in charlotte.

He expressed confidence inside the ticket’s chances on tuesday, however warned supporters towards complacency and implored electorate to embrace the risk to choose the country’s first girl president.

“every election is vital, but no longer every election will alternate history,” he said. “if we do what we know how to do, this election will exchange records.”

Mr. Trump’s strolling mate, gov. Mike pence of indiana, commenced the day with a brisk jog across a windswept tarmac in an not likely spot for a republican: duluth, minn.

It became the republican ticket’s second stop in deep-blue minnesota in two days, and even though few symptoms point to a republican disenchanted there, a modest crowd near mr. Pence’s plane lapped up his assaults on mrs. Clinton.

It’s nearly tough to maintain up, all the headlines, all of the scandals flowing out of just her years as secretary of country, mr. Pence said.

Each campaigns conspicuously reached across party strains in their final pitches. In scranton, pa., mr. Trump spoke to what he said had been “democratic voters in this us of a who are thirsting for trade.” in ann arbor, mich., mrs. Clinton reminded an audience of her days as an intern for president gerald r. Ford, a republican from michigan, and of all of the republican leaders who have advocated her this year.

“we need to placed u . S . Beforehand of celebration when it comes to this election,” she stated.

Mr. Trump seemed touchy to the truth that his final forty eight hours on the campaign path lacked the star electricity attracted to mrs. Clinton, who turned into followed through musicians like jay z, beyoncé, lady gaga and mr. Springsteen. (collectively, her surrogates have more than eighty grammy awards.)

beyoncé and jay z, mr. Trump stated dismissively. i really like them. however, he delivered mischievously, i am getting larger crowds than they do.

But the hypercompetitive mr. Trump couldn’t resist seeking to outshine his rival. In manchester, he study aloud a letter that he stated become from invoice belichick, the teach of the new england patriots soccer group.

congratulations on a outstanding campaign, it purportedly examine. “you’ve got treated an implausible slanted and terrible media and feature come out fantastically. a spokesman for the patriots stated he could not verify or deny the letter’s authenticity monday night time.)
As a very last flourish, mr. Trump claimed that tom brady, the group’s quarterback and a hero throughout new england, had cast a vote for him.
In a radio interview on monday, however, mr. Brady stated he had not yet voted.

Closing thought about Hillary and Trump

hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump-election-odds2Hard-working staff here at Spoiler Alerts has thought long and hard about the final argument to make as the 2016 election draws to a close. On the one hand, there is Hillary Clinton, an imperfect but thoroughly competent candidate. On the other hand, there’s Donald Trump, a candidate whose trade and foreign policies would be an unmitigated disaster, and who would be relying on Grade-Z flunkies to do his bidding.

It’s miles election day. If you’re nonetheless not sure, it probably manner which you want a more visceral manner to think about your choice. So right here’s a extraordinary manner to reflect onconsideration on your preference today: at some stage in this complete marketing campaign cycle, have you ever read a single personal anecdote about either candidate that made you think higher of him or her?

Most presidential campaigns are chock-full of small, revealing, well-mentioned anecdotes about the candidate meeting electorate and interacting with them on a human stage. That is the bread and butter of campaign coverage. Certainly, heartwarming anecdotes like these are commonly so ubiquitous that smart magazines warn readers off them. It’s far true that, at their worst, this style is banal. At their pleasant, however, such stories humanize the candidates. Empathy isn’t always necessarily the maximum essential trait in a president, however it’s far sincerely a beneficial one.

I have paid pretty near attention to this marketing campaign for the beyond 18 months or so. I have read and listened and watched a fair amount approximately trump. And in all that point, i’ve yet to peer a unmarried tale referring to a fine private trait approximately him. At some point of the complete republican countrywide convention, proposing maximum of his own family as speakers, there has been, to my memory, now not a single, particular anecdote showing the higher angels of trump’s nature.

It’s virtually worse than that. We recognise from david fahrenthold’s masterful reporting that trump claims to provide big to charities but does now not surely do so. We recognize from the get right of entry to hollywood tape what trump absolutely thinks of ladies he reveals attractive. We know from his campaign that, whilst confronted with challenges by using megyn kelly, carly fiorina, ted cruz, gonzalo curiel, khizr and ghazala khan, alicia machado and, oh yes, hillary clinton, his response is to head nasty after which maybe praise himself for no longer being even nastier.

Trump is the maximum petty, most vainglorious individual to be a primary birthday celebration nominee. As the big apple times’s maggie haberman stated over the weekend about trump’s final push:

I searched on-line to discover a positive final case for trump’s non-public attributes. The nearest i could get become byron york’s very last column of the campaign, which praised trump for now not quitting the race notwithstanding numerous pundit predictions that this would manifest. That’s a honestly low bar.

The problem with writing approximately trump is that he has no complexity. There’s no subtext to what trump says or does — it’s all at the surface. He’s so basic that it’s not possible to find any deeper which means or counterintuitive take.

Irrespective of how an awful lot one tries to expand an opportunity perspective, the inescapable conclusion is that trump is a narcissistic, ignorant, misogynistic gasbag.

He’s fundamental and terrible. There’s surely not anything else of substance to say.

Hillary will gain votes after Election Night. Here’s why.

hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump-election-oddsMost Americans assume that by the wee hours of tomorrow, the national media will declare unofficially, but still decisively) either Hillary or Trump our next president.

Of course, the 2000 election showed that the result might not be settled so quickly. Considering how tight the polls have been, one or two battleground states may be too close to call Wednesday morning.

That would be suitable news for hillary clinton’s possibilities. She’ll in all likelihood take more of the mail-in and provisional ballots that could’t remember until the days and weeks after the election. Something her vote share this night, it will probable growth within the weeks to return. Allow us to explain.

For election directors, 2000 become a take-heed call. Brought on by means of the debatable bush v. Gore choice, states created uniform counting requirements, which had been contested at some stage in the florida recount. Reforms consist of safeguards that protect electorate whose names were improperly eliminated (or by no means brought) to registration lists, and approaches to make certain foreign places residents’ and service individuals’ votes will be treated equitably.

So greater ballots will nevertheless want to remember after election day. Our most recent research shows that these “extra time” ballots tilt in prefer of democratic candidates for president.

Recall that inside the election returns stated by way of the new york times on nov. Eight, 2012, (which we use for the initial election night counts), almost 118 million ballots have been counted. In those, obama led by way of nearly 2.8 million votes.

However by the time all the states had finished their legit canvasses several weeks later, the overall ballot be counted covered greater than 126 million votes — an boom in 8 million votes when you consider that election night. And obama’s lead had grown to nicely over 4.8 million votes.

In different phrases, 51.1 percent of the 2-birthday celebration votes counted on election night time 2012 have been for obama. Of ballots counted after election night time, 62.7 percent had been for obama. By the point all of the votes had been counted, obama’s share of the vote had grown to fifty one.9 percent.

We’ve examined such past due-counted ballots going back to 1948. For most of the postwar generation, the “overtime vote” modified little in both course. One exception came throughout the 1960 election, whilst richard nixon gained a zero.20 percentage factor shift in his choose during post-election-day counting. The alternative exceptions display a extremely good trend: in the course of 2004, 2008 and 2012, the democratic applicants loved gains of zero.12, 0.35, and zero.39 percent points, respectively.

In different words, given that 2000, votes counted after election night time have increasingly more desired the democratic candidate. We name this the “blue shift.”

Right here’s why the past due remember now favors the democratic candidate. Individuals who forged provisional ballots are typically the ones whose registration appears abnormal on election day. Maximum registration questions come because electorate have moved without updating their registrations. In latest years democrats have won more of the votes from social agencies that tend to transport regularly: racial minorities and teenagers.

To assist estimate which states those is probably, we’ve got as compared the closeness of the cutting-edge presidential race with the proportion of 2012 ballots that were provisional. Any state where the 2012 provisional poll fee is close to the modern-day polling margin can also switch on late-counted ballots — this is, if clinton is just slightly in the back of late tonight.

Six states meet those standards: arizona, colorado, florida, nevada, north carolina and ohio.

Watch these states as returns are available in tonight. Make certain that the media does no longer name them upfront without correctly thinking about the opportunity that provisional ballots would possibly affect the outcome. Take into account that in 2000, maximum networks “known as” florida for gore, which they then needed to retract.

Of route, even though the election is close in this type of states, clinton is by no means guaranteed victory from the provisional ballots. In 2004, george w. Bush led by means of 121,012 votes in ohio, with 158,642 provisional ballots left to count. Most effective approximately three-quarters of those proved to be from eligible citizens — and bush took in a substantial share of these, despite the fact that a smaller share than did kerry. Bush’s lead turned into too awesome to be surmounted through the provisional ballots.

Whatever the vote depend tonight, clinton’s proportion will probably develop in the next few weeks as states release their reputable tallies. That’s now not due to the fact the gadget is “rigged.” it’s simply the state’s dedication to making sure that every vote is counted.

Election Day 2016: An acrimonious race reaches its endpoint

Most divisive and unpredictable presidential race in modern memory reached its end Tuesday with long lines at polling sites from the East Coast to the Rust Belt, suggesting voters could push turnout to new levels in some places even as many decried the campaign’s harsh and bitter tones.

Trump and Hillary delivered starkly different messages as they made their last public appeals.

In Michigan, the GOP nominee blasted his opponent as embodying Washington’s corrupt culture. In North Carolina, Clinton said the election would be “where we prove conclusively that, yes: love trumps hate.”

By early Tuesday, residents in New Hampshire, Virginia and elsewhere were casting votes. At Stonewall Middle School in Manassas, Va., nearly 170 people were lined up when voting began at 6 a.m.

Past due monday night, trump took the stage to a flashy laser light show in a crowded area in manchester, n.H., that seats kind of 11,000. “tomorrow, the yankee operating class will strike lower back!” he declared.

“do you want the us to be dominated through the corrupt political magnificence, or do you want the united states to be ruled once more by using the human beings?” requested the gop nominee to loud cheers, adding: “hillary clinton’s most effective allegiance is to herself, her donors and her unique pursuits.”

“lock her up!” the group began chanting moments later.

Earlier monday, a rowdy crowd in scranton, pa., shouted, “she’s a witch!” and “she’s a demon!”as trump berated clinton. While he started to lambaste the news media as dishonest, the target market erupted right into a thunderous chant of “cnn sucks!”

The republican nominee said that the fact that the fbi had already completed its examination of newly found emails related to clinton proved that the judicial gadget changed into “rigged.” he urged citizens to “deliver justice at the poll field.”

Fbi director james b. Comey stated sunday that the fbi had located not anything to modify its months-old decision no longer to are searching for prices against the previous secretary of country for her use of a private electronic mail server.

As election day drew close to, clinton seemed narrowly ahead in maximum polls, and her campaign officials pointed to heavy turnout amongst hispanics and asians in important swing states, along with florida and north carolina, as evidence that the race was moving of their path.

And the two guys who have dominated democratic politics for the last many years — barack obama and invoice clinton — have been relegated to supportive roles.

Obama, who traveled to three states monday to stump on hillary clinton’s behalf, journeyed to fort lesley j. Mcnair tuesday morning to play basketball with pals — an election day ritual he discovered in both 2008 and 2012.

In the meantime, in white plains, bill clinton informed newshounds he’s pretty comfy gambling the role of political spouse.

It’s felt that manner for several years now,” he defined. “i’m excellent! I’ve had 15 years of practice.